Tariff War Casualties, Mini-Shutdown Fallout, Industry Shrinkage

Tariff Wars: The value of US wine exports declined by $428 million (33%) in 2025, according to the American Association of Wine Economists. The largest impact involved Canada ($343 million, down 77.7%), followed by China and the UK. The Canadian decline was due to a boycott of US wines in response to tariffs and other disputes. Major wine media like the New York Times (Eric Asimov) and Wine Spectator (Mitch Frank) have recently run columns describing the negative impact on the American wine industry.

Mini-Shutdown (Cont.): Regardless of which political party you wish to blame, the impasse over ICE operations is having a major effect on passengers, airlines, and the economy. There were numerous TV news stories this week showing incredibly long lines at major airports,, sometimes stretching into parking garages. This is due to a shortage of TSA checkpoint personnel (50,000 of them!), who are not getting paid, since they are part of the Department of Homeland Security. Some have quit, others are just not showing up for work.

Industry Shrinkage: Political developments are only part of what is challenging today’s wineries, which this year shrunk by 3% below 2025 levels, from 11,450 to 11,107 wine producers nationwide. Not surprisingly, California, by far the largest wine state, lost the most wineries, with PA losing the fewest (down from 402 to 401), and Missouri being the only state to remain stable at 253 wineries.Interestingly, there are new wineries popping up in various places around the country, so it’s not all bad news..