Campaign Chaos
The past two weeks have been some of the most tumultuous and consequential in American presidential history.
About a week after President Biden turned in a stunningly poor debate performance, former President Trump was nearly assassinated at a campaign rally in western Pennsylvania, further boosting his popularity and polling lead over Biden. Then, this past Sunday night, President Biden abruptly announced his withdrawal from the presidential race, which quickly led to Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the presumptive nominee for the Democrats. And she raised a record $80 million in 24 hours.
The character of the race also changed. Whereas Mr. Biden, at 81, had been the oldest presidential candidate in history, now it’s Mr. Trump, just three years younger at 78, whose new opponent is just 59, so the age advantage has flipped. So has the Democratic ticket, from Biden-Harris to Harris-Somebody Else who may be able to recapture some votes from swing states 100 days from now.
For the American wine industry, the implications are murky, but we do know that at least VP Harris drinks wine, while the others do not. No matter which party wins the White House, there will be at least a major pause in all regulatory activity, and possibly a complete overhaul starting from scratch.
Meanwhile, Congress just left a week earlier than planned for its August recess, which means nothing will get done for the next six weeks despite some pressing matters like appropriations. They’ll come back in September and hopefully will avoid a government shutdown at the end of that month before recessing again to campaign for reelection.
Whatever happens, WineAmerica is getting prepared to educate a new Administration and Congress about the economic importance of the wine industry. We have again commissioned John Dunham & Associations, a top economics research firm, to assess the economic impact of wine in 2025. In 2017 it was $220 billion, then up 25% to $276 billion in 2022—despite the onset of Covid during that period.
Like the past two studies, this one will include both national data, plus detailed data for all 50 states, in terms of number of wine producers, jobs, wages, tourism visits, tourism expenditures, taxes on all levels, and other metrics.
Wine is the ultimate value-added product, and a true economic engine. Produced in all 50 states, it’s also the all-American art form.
